Will Punjab Kings win the 2026 Indian Premier League?

Punjab Kings trades at 23¢ with an extraordinarily high implied yield of 2782% on the yes side, suggesting either severe underpricing or extreme tail risk embedded in the contract structure near expiry. The 7-day price surge from 15¢ to 24¢ (60% appreciation) combined with elevated realized volatility of 556% and a Cliff Risk Index of 3 indicates significant uncertainty and potential liquidity constraints as the tournament approaches in 44 days. With $2.0M in 24-hour volume against $5.9M open interest and a tight 2¢ spread, the market appears reasonably liquid but the asymmetric yield profile warrants caution about whether this reflects genuine probability or a liquidity/settlement artifact.

Resolution rules

The 2026 Indian Premier League (IPL) T20 cricket competition is scheduled to take place from March 26 to May 31, 2026. This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 Indian Premier League. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 Indian Premier League based on the rules of the competition (e.g., they do not advance to the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 Indian Premier League season is permanently canceled or there is otherwise no winner declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be the IPL (https://www.iplt20.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade