Will North Korea recognize Israel by June 30?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will North Korea recognize Israel by June 30?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Polymarket. This market is pricing an extremely unlikely outcome at 4¢ with virtually no trading activity ($0 in 24h volume), creating a massive 11,835% implied yield on the Yes side that reflects the illiquidity premium rather than genuine probability assessment.
Analysis
This market is pricing an extremely unlikely outcome at 4¢ with virtually no trading activity ($0 in 24h volume), creating a massive 11,835% implied yield on the Yes side that reflects the illiquidity premium rather than genuine probability assessment. The 5¢ spread is notably wide relative to the price, and the Cliff Risk Index of 24 suggests meaningful tail risk around the June 30 resolution date. The 7-day price movement from 2¢ to 4¢ indicates recent upward pressure, though the $10.6M open interest concentrated at such low prices suggests this is primarily a speculative position rather than a liquid market with genuine conviction on either side.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x87481d5929f101b77c7f7a0bfc899df03c9c4d3773bba061846feb68dc08e290 yes 100