Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 35% across 12 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
35%
12 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$23K
12 contracts
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
912 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
8 clusters across 12 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 8% of their title tokens — “Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year” vs “Will US test scores in Reading decline”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before Sep 1, 2026
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26SEP
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before Jan 20, 2029
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-29JAN20
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before Jan 1, 2028
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-28
Cluster 2
Will US test scores in Reading decline
Cluster 3
Will Cincinnati win the Pro Football AFC North Division
Will Cincinnati win the Pro Football AFC North Division?: Cincinnati
KXNFLAFCNORTH-27-CIN
Cluster 4
Will Minnesota win the Pro Football NFC North Division
Will Minnesota win the Pro Football NFC North Division?: Minnesota
KXNFLNFCNORTH-27-MIN
Cluster 5
Will Republicans win the Senate race in North Carolina
Will Republicans win the Senate race in North Carolina?: Michael Whatley
SENATENC-26-R
Cluster 6
Will Chicago win the Pro Football NFC North Division
Will Chicago win the Pro Football NFC North Division?: Chicago
KXNFLNFCNORTH-27-CHI
Cluster 7
Will Democratics win the Senate race in North Carolina
Will Democratics win the Senate race in North Carolina?: Roy Cooper
SENATENC-26-D
Cluster 8
Will Baltimore win the Pro Football AFC North Division
Will Baltimore win the Pro Football AFC North Division?: Baltimore
KXNFLAFCNORTH-27-BAL
What moved the line
- Jul 21Before Jan 1, 2027↓4pp23→19¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 18Before Jan 1, 2027↓3pp27→24¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 20Roy Cooper↑3pp87→90¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 17No significant difference↓3pp41→38¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in geopolitics
- Will the Strait of Hormuz reopen to normal shipping?last 19% · 0d
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- Will People's Republic of China agree to or announce the formal abolition of the hukou household registration system nationwide before Jan 1, 2028last 17% · 8d
- Will People's Republic of China agree to or announce the formal abolition of all nationwide numerical limits on the number of children an individual or couple may have before Jan 1, 2027last 52% · 8d
- Will Iran’s average daily crude oil production for June 2026 be at least 2.4M bpdlast 90% · 9d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In geopolitics
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.