Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 40% across 14 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
40%
14 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$54K
14 contracts
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
959 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
8 clusters across 14 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 9% of their title tokens — “Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal” vs “Will US test scores in Reading decline”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before July
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26JUL
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal before August?: Before August
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26AUG
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before September
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26SEP
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before 2027
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before 2028
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-28
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before Jan 20, 2029
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-29JAN20
Cluster 2
Will US test scores in Reading decline
Cluster 3
Will Minnesota win the Pro Football NFC North Division
Will Minnesota win the Pro Football NFC North Division?: Minnesota
KXNFLNFCNORTH-27-MIN
Cluster 4
Will Chicago win the Pro Football NFC North Division
Will Chicago win the Pro Football NFC North Division?: Chicago
KXNFLNFCNORTH-27-CHI
Cluster 5
Will Democratics win the Senate race in North Carolina
Will Democratics win the Senate race in North Carolina?: Roy Cooper
SENATENC-26-D
Cluster 6
Will Baltimore win the Pro Football AFC North Division
Will Baltimore win the Pro Football AFC North Division?: Baltimore
KXNFLAFCNORTH-27-BAL
Cluster 7
Will Cincinnati win the Pro Football AFC North Division
Will Cincinnati win the Pro Football AFC North Division?: Cincinnati
KXNFLAFCNORTH-27-CIN
Cluster 8
Will Republicans win the Senate race in North Carolina
Will Republicans win the Senate race in North Carolina?: Michael Whatley
SENATENC-26-R
What moved the line
- May 31Before September↓9pp40→31¢ · Kalshi
- May 30Before September↓7pp47→40¢ · Kalshi
- May 31Before August↓6pp34→28¢ · Kalshi
- May 31Before July↓5pp20→15¢ · Kalshi
- May 31Before 2027↓5pp60→55¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in geopolitics
- Singapore vs. China PR - Halftime Resultlast 45% · 0d
- Singapore vs. China PRlast 61% · 0d
- Singapore vs. China PR - Exact Scorelast 14% · 0d
- Singapore vs. China PR - More Marketslast 95% · 0d
- Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?: 80+last 9% · 3d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.