Will the Democratic Party win the IA-03 House seat?

The Democratic contract at 67¢ shows extreme asymmetric risk, with the "No" side offering a 368.7% implied yield compared to just 89.4% for "Yes," suggesting significant underpricing of Republican chances despite the current Democratic lean. With zero 24-hour volume but $12.3M open interest and a 9¢ spread, this market suffers from severe illiquidity that likely explains the distorted yields and 396% realized volatility. The 201-day timeframe to the November 2026 election provides ample time for price discovery, but the current 4.12 volatility ratio and 2.0 info arrivals per hour indicate this market remains highly uncertain and potentially mispriced.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade