What is the current probability for "Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $670b on April 30?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 41¢ (41% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on April 30, 2026. 8 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $670b on April 30?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 7156.9% and 3180.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $670b on April 30?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $670b on April 30?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 41% probability that Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $670b on April 30?. This contract trades at 41¢ on Polymarket, closing April 30, 2026.

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41¢

Bid/Ask 31/50¢·Spread 19¢·Vol $95.522·OI $1,457.044·Closes Apr 30, 2026·8d remaining

0x88b2a7dda2fdc3980466dfe446eff29cdf42b097f7b8adf210d62bad22cf718f

7-day price53 snapshots · 2 regime

44¢41¢ current

Apr 2230¢Apr 22

Cross-venue

Also on kalshi at 7¢(Δ +34¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.93IY 56763.3%Close-time delta 21h

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the value of Elon Musk's net worth on April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index Elon Musk Profile (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/?embedded-checkout=true), specifically the datapoint for April 30, 2026, once the data is finalized. If this resolution source is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 7156.9%

IY (No) 3180.8%

Adj IY 1431%

CRI 2

Overround 0.1%

LAS 0.60

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	7156.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	3180.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1431%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.60	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

19¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 8:28:45 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 8:23:24 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x88b2a7dda2fdc3980466dfe446eff29cdf42b097f7b8adf210d62bad22cf718f yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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