Elon Musk Net Worth on April 30?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
31%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
1 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
191 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Musk have a net worth more than 1400 billion dollars before 2027
Will Musk have a net worth more than 1400 billion dollars before 2027?: More than $1.4 trillion
KXMUSKWEALTH-27-1400
Analysis
This contract estimates a 28% probability that Elon Musk's net worth will exceed $670 billion by April 30, 2026—just two days away. The probability reflects uncertainty about Tesla's stock price movement and broader market conditions in the final days before settlement. Musk's wealth is primarily concentrated in Tesla equity, so the outcome hinges almost entirely on where Tesla shares trade by market close on April 30. The cross-venue gap suggests traders on Kalshi (34% average) view the threshold as more achievable than those on Polymarket (18% average), likely reflecting different interpretations of recent Tesla price action and end-of-month volatility patterns. With resolution occurring in 48 hours, any significant market movements or company announcements could substantially shift probabilities in the final trading session.
- ›Tesla stock price on April 29-30, 2026 and intraday volatility patterns will directly determine whether Musk's net worth crosses $670 billion
- ›The current market price of Tesla shares relative to historical valuations of Musk's known equity holdings determines the baseline net worth calculation
- ›Any earnings announcements, regulatory filings, or major company news released between now and April 30 could create price momentum in either direction
- ›The 16 percentage-point gap between venues suggests disagreement about whether recent Tesla trading patterns favor the higher threshold
- ›Settlement will depend on publicly available net worth estimates from recognized financial data providers on or around April 30
What moved the line
- Jun 23More than $1.4 trillion↓16pp50→34¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20More than $1.4 trillion↓10pp66→56¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18More than $1.4 trillion↓9pp79→70¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22More than $1.4 trillion↓7pp57→50¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24More than $1.4 trillion↓6pp34→28¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (31% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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