Will Cindy Holscher win the 2026 Kansas Governor Democratic primary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 28% probability that Will Cindy Holscher win the 2026 Kansas Governor Democratic primary election?. This contract trades at 28¢ on Polymarket, closing August 4, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $10.5M open interest, suggesting the positions are largely static and potentially stale.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $10.5M open interest, suggesting the positions are largely static and potentially stale. The 953% implied yield on the "Yes" side is extraordinarily high and likely reflects the low price floor (26¢) rather than genuine expected returns, indicating this is a highly speculative long-shot bet on Holscher. The 774% realized volatility and 2.94 vol ratio suggest significant past price swings, though the modest 3¢ recent decline from 29¢ indicates relative stability in the near term with 109 days until resolution.
Also on kalshi at 21¢(Δ +7¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Kansas, scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Kansas Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Kansas Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
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sf trade 0x8bb083247bc0525ae99c364b72394f3cd8e8d15bd4ed7ce08bd71079bba2bda6 yes 100