Will Niall Murphy win the 2026 Galway West by-election?

The 11-cent price on Niall Murphy reflects an extremely thin market with only $24 in 24-hour volume and a wide 19-cent spread, suggesting low conviction and potential mispricing rather than genuine probability assessment. The 855% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high and likely reflects the illiquidity premium rather than realistic odds, while the substantial gap between Yes (855%) and No (13.1%) yields signals market dysfunction. With 345 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 8, this market remains highly speculative and should be treated with caution given the minimal liquidity and the contingency nature of the event (dependent on Catherine Connolly's election as President).

Resolution rules

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade