Will Josh Tenorio win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 39% probability that Will Josh Tenorio win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election?. This contract trades at 39¢ on Polymarket, closing August 1, 2026. Josh Tenorio's odds have collapsed 40% over seven days (from 56¢ to 40¢), suggesting significant negative information arrival at a rate of 2.8 events per hour, yet the market shows zero 24-hour volume despite $3.2M open interest and an extreme 23¢ bid-ask spread.
Analysis
Josh Tenorio's odds have collapsed 40% over seven days (from 56¢ to 40¢), suggesting significant negative information arrival at a rate of 2.8 events per hour, yet the market shows zero 24-hour volume despite $3.2M open interest and an extreme 23¢ bid-ask spread. The 505% implied yield on the Yes side and 581% realized volatility indicate this is a highly illiquid, speculative position where the price movement may reflect thin order books rather than genuine probability shifts, making the 40¢ quote potentially unreliable for decision-making.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Guam, scheduled to take place on August 1, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Guam Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Guam Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
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sf trade 0x8d240de0d0ab5a55bc688eb09ca7066a023fc0942a08d6cb2607971eb87d936f yes 100