Will Apple (AAPL) close above $250 end of April?

The market is pricing an 84% probability that AAPL closes above $250 by April 30, 2026, but the extreme 16,870% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe illiquidity with only $4,727 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume. The price has declined 6 cents over seven days despite the high probability, and the 331% realized volatility combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 5 suggests significant uncertainty remains despite the bullish pricing—the 10-cent spread is notably wide relative to the contract value, indicating thin market depth with just 11 days to expiration.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Apple (AAPL) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Apple (AAPL) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

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