What is the current probability for "Will Metz be Relegated from Ligue 1 in 2025-26 Season?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 98¢ (98% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on June 2, 2026. 41 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Metz be Relegated from Ligue 1 in 2025-26 Season?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 497.5% and 1572.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Metz be Relegated from Ligue 1 in 2025-26 Season?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Metz be Relegated from Ligue 1 in 2025-26 Season?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 98% probability that Will Metz be Relegated from Ligue 1 in 2025-26 Season?. This contract trades at 98¢ on Kalshi, closing June 2, 2026. The market is pricing Metz relegation at an extremely high 98¢ on Kalshi versus 94¢ on Polymarket, creating a 4-cent cross-venue arbitrage gap that suggests potential overpricing on Kalshi.

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98¢

Bid/Ask 63/100¢·Spread 37¢·Vol $0·OI $1,308·Closes Jun 2, 2026·41d remaining

KXLIGUE1RELEGATION-26-FCM

7-day price436 snapshots · 6 regime

98¢64¢ current

Apr 1063¢Apr 21

Analysis

2d ago

The market is pricing Metz relegation at an extremely high 98¢ on Kalshi versus 94¢ on Polymarket, creating a 4-cent cross-venue arbitrage gap that suggests potential overpricing on Kalshi. With only $1,308 in open interest, zero 24-hour volume, and a massive 36¢ spread, liquidity is critically thin and the price may not reflect true market consensus. The astronomical 1,153% realized volatility and 1,431% risk-adjusted yield on the "No" side indicate extreme pricing distortion, likely driven by illiquidity rather than fundamental shifts in Metz's actual relegation risk.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 94¢(Δ +4¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.88IY 61.0%Close-time delta 74h

Resolution rules

If Metz is relegated from Ligue 1 in 2025-26 season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 497.5%

IY (No) 1572.5%

Adj IY 344%

CRI 2

Overround 0.5%

LAS 0.56

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	497.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	1572.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	344%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.5%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.56	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

37¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 7:40:29 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 7:38:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXLIGUE1RELEGATION-26-FCM yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →