Will Raymond McKay be the Republican nominee for Senate in Rhode Island?
Prediction markets currently give a 84% probability that Will Raymond McKay be the Republican nominee for Senate in Rhode Island?. This contract trades at 84¢ on Polymarket, closing September 8, 2026. Raymond McKay commands an extremely high 89% probability with a steep 31.3% annualized yield for yes positions, suggesting strong conviction among traders that he'll secure the Republican nomination in Rhode Island's 2026 Senate race.
Analysis
Raymond McKay commands an extremely high 89% probability with a steep 31.3% annualized yield for yes positions, suggesting strong conviction among traders that he'll secure the Republican nomination in Rhode Island's 2026 Senate race. However, the market shows concerning illiquidity with only $10 in 24-hour volume against $12.8M open interest, and the massive 2051.9% implied yield on no positions indicates severe mispricing risk—this likely reflects a thin, one-sided market rather than genuine equilibrium. The 6-cent rally over seven days combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 8 warrants caution, as the 144-day timeframe leaves substantial room for political developments to shift the race dynamics.
Also on kalshi at 87¢(Δ -3¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Rhode island. If no 2026 Rhode Island Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Rhode Island Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
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sf trade 0x8d3fa7e5d7ec4d8e7e39c9406713aa76b2b1cc3006d5ee046cb1d66cad8e02d6 yes 100