Will Raymond McKay be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Rhode Island?
Prediction markets currently give a 87% probability that Will Raymond McKay be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Rhode Island?. This contract trades at 87¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $272 open interest, making the 87¢ price potentially unreliable despite the tight 3¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $272 open interest, making the 87¢ price potentially unreliable despite the tight 3¢ spread. The asymmetric implied yields—32.1% for Yes versus 1030.9% for No—suggest the market is pricing in substantial tail risk, though the high cliff risk index (6) and 72% realized volatility indicate significant uncertainty around nomination dynamics. With 201 days to expiry and a stalled price at 85¢ over the past week, this contract lacks sufficient liquidity to serve as a reliable probability estimate for McKay's nomination prospects.
Also on polymarket at 84¢(Δ +3¢)
Resolution rules
If Raymond McKay wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Senate Rhode Island Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSENATERIR-26-RMCK yes 100