Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $340 end of April?

This market is pricing in an extremely high probability (95%) that Tesla closes above $340 by month-end, yet shows zero 24-hour volume despite $3.99M open interest and an 8¢ spread, suggesting the price may be stale or illiquid. The astronomical 61,220% implied yield on the "No" side is a red flag indicating severe mispricing—such extreme yields typically reflect either deep illiquidity or a market dysfunction rather than genuine arbitrage opportunity. With only 11 days to expiration and a modest 1¢ price decline over seven days, this appears to be a low-conviction market where the 95¢ price may not reflect true market sentiment given the complete absence of recent trading activity.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

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