Will Adam Kurtz win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Adam Kurtz win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Polymarket, closing August 6, 2026. Adam Kurtz is priced at a negligible 4¢ with an extraordinary 7,894% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting near-zero market confidence in his primary victory despite $16.7M in open interest.
Analysis
Adam Kurtz is priced at a negligible 4¢ with an extraordinary 7,894% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting near-zero market confidence in his primary victory despite $16.7M in open interest. The 2¢ spread and minimal $5 daily volume indicate severe illiquidity for a contract with 111 days to expiry, creating potential slippage risk for any meaningful position. The extreme volatility (1,821% realized) and high cliff risk (24) suggest this market may be driven by thin order books rather than fundamental information arrival, warranting caution on the reliability of the 4¢ price discovery.
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Tennessee, scheduled to take place on August 6, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Tennessee Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Tennessee Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
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sf trade 0x915d92b581438f309d6c2ef7feacebc9410e95ee8da23e7a110f6cbb03c8c109 yes 100