Will George Pickens be traded?
Prediction markets currently give a 56% probability that Will George Pickens be traded?. This contract trades at 56¢ on Polymarket, closing July 22, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 83¢ spread, suggesting the 56¢ price may not reflect true consensus given the thin order book of just $5.464 in open interest.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 83¢ spread, suggesting the 56¢ price may not reflect true consensus given the thin order book of just $5.464 in open interest. The implied yields are unusually high across both sides (297% for Yes, 481% for No), indicating significant mispricing or uncertainty, though the neutral regime score suggests no clear directional bias. With 97 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 1, there's minimal tail risk, but traders should be cautious given the illiquidity—the recent 6¢ price movement from 50¢ could easily reverse on minimal volume.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed NFL player is traded by July 22, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x91b6939a95e9626fe3598483d37f2ad80fccac3d8a7a2ac8c9a4d9a4007661df yes 100