Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,600 (HIGH) in December?

The market has surged 32% over seven days (44¢ to 58¢), suggesting recent bullish sentiment toward a ~7,600 SPX target by end-2026, though the 16¢ spread and modest $60.9k daily volume indicate relatively thin liquidity for a 256-day contract. The extreme realized volatility of 419% and vol ratio of 3.65 signal substantial price uncertainty, while the asymmetric implied yields (103% for Yes vs. 197% for No) reflect the market's view that downside risk is better compensated than upside potential. With only 0.5 info arrivals per hour and neutral regime conditions, this appears to be a longer-term directional bet rather than a near-term catalyst play.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.

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