Will the Republican Party win the FL-18 House seat?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with the No side offering a 1,642% implied yield versus just 20.3% for Yes, reflecting the 90¢ price heavily favoring Republican victory in FL-18. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $14.9M open interest and a tight 1¢ spread suggests this is a relatively illiquid position market where the price may not reflect true consensus, particularly given the exceptional yield disparity that typically indicates mispricing or trapped liquidity. With 200 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 9, the market carries substantial tail risk, though the stable 7-day price action at 90¢ suggests current holders are confident in the Republican outcome.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade