Will the Republican Party win the DE-AL House seat?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 2425% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 13.7% on the No side, reflecting the deeply Democratic nature of Delaware's at-large House seat where Republicans have virtually no recent competitive history. The 7¢ price appears to be a floor price rather than a genuine probability estimate, evidenced by zero 24-hour volume and the massive yield differential that would only make sense if traders believe there's essentially no path to Republican victory. With $19.1M in open interest but a tight 1¢ spread and 200 days to expiry, this market may be suffering from low liquidity despite the substantial capital deployed, suggesting the price could be vulnerable to sharp moves if new information emerges.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the DE-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade