Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $300 end of April?

The 89¢ price reflects an extremely high implied probability for MSFT closing above $300 by April 30, 2026, yet the market shows zero 24-hour volume and a wide 19¢ spread, suggesting minimal liquidity despite $1M+ open interest. The asymmetric implied yields (389% for Yes vs. 25,485% for No) and elevated Cliff Risk Index of 8 indicate significant tail risk, likely driven by the tight 12-day window where even modest price movement could trigger resolution. With MSFT currently trading near this strike and the market showing no price movement over seven days, this appears to be a stale quote awaiting either a sharp directional move or expiration.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

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