Will the Democratic Party win the NY-17 House seat?

This NY-17 market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $10.5M open interest, suggesting the large OI may be stale or concentrated among few positions. The 284% implied yield on the "No" side combined with an 8¢ spread and exceptional 1227% realized volatility indicates significant uncertainty and potential mispricing, though the neutral regime and modest 5.1% price movement over seven days suggest recent stabilization. With 201 days to expiry and a 4.0/hour information arrival rate, this market appears to be in a holding pattern awaiting substantive campaign developments or polling shifts in this competitive district.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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