What is the current probability for "Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 end of April?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 36¢ (36% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on April 30, 2026. 8 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 end of April?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 8170.3% and 2585.1% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 end of April?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 end of April?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 36% probability that Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 end of April?. This contract trades at 36¢ on Polymarket, closing April 30, 2026.

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36¢

Bid/Ask 11/60¢·Spread 49¢·Vol $0·OI $234.44·Closes Apr 30, 2026·8d remaining

0x97f524c077d99e4c432dd0898d9747dfc89eb2dc073ddbade111a6caa3b2514d

7-day price124 snapshots · 3 regime

38¢36¢ current

Apr 1817¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 8170.3%

IY (No) 2585.1%

Adj IY 8170%

CRI 2

RV 1744%

VR 1.39

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	8170.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	2585.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	8170%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1744%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.39	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.8/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	6.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

49¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 1:26:07 AM

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 1:23:18 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x97f524c077d99e4c432dd0898d9747dfc89eb2dc073ddbade111a6caa3b2514d yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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