Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June?

The 5¢ price reflects an extremely low 5% implied probability for crude oil to touch $52 by end-June 2026, yet the Yes side offers a staggering 9375% annualized yield over 74 days, suggesting significant mispricing or tail-risk premium for a move requiring roughly a 40% decline from current levels. The 1915% realized volatility and 1.84 vol ratio indicate extreme historical price swings that contradict the market's near-zero probability assessment, though the neutral regime score (0.341) and modest 24h volume of $1.26M suggest limited conviction behind either side. The 19 Cliff Risk Index and 2¢ spread warrant caution—this appears to be a classic deep out-of-the-money contract where the asymmetric payoff may be attracting speculative interest rather than reflecting true fundamental risk.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Crude Oil (CL) futures is equal to or below the listed price by the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.

Indicators

Regime

Trade