Will the Democratic Party win the OK-01 House seat?

The Democratic contract is pricing OK-01 at just 13¢, reflecting the district's strong Republican lean, but the extreme 1217% implied yield on the Yes side signals severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $27.5M open interest. The neutral regime score (0.568) and flat 7-day price action suggest the market hasn't yet incorporated meaningful new information about candidate quality or district dynamics with over 200 days until the November 2026 election. The modest 1¢ spread and moderate Cliff Risk Index of 7 indicate this is a relatively stable long-dated market, though the asymmetric yield profile warns that any Democratic-favorable news could trigger sharp repricing given the thin liquidity.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade