Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 end of April?

The 47¢ price implies Tesla needs to rally roughly 12% from current levels to close above $400 by April 30, 2026, yet the extraordinarily high implied yields (3549% for Yes, 2417% risk-adjusted) signal severe illiquidity with only $2,738 open interest and a 14¢ spread on a 12-day countdown. The 456% realized volatility and extreme yield figures suggest this market is either mispriced due to thin liquidity or pricing in a binary catalyst event, though the neutral regime score and modest 2.5 info arrivals per hour don't obviously justify such tail-risk pricing.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

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