Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $0.00 end of April?

Prediction markets currently give a 51% probability that Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $0.00 end of April?. This contract trades at 51¢ on Polymarket, closing April 30, 2026. This market exhibits severe dysfunction with zero 24-hour volume despite $216.8k open interest and a massive 45¢ spread, suggesting the 78¢ price is likely stale and unreliable.

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51¢
Bid/Ask 2/100¢·Spread 98¢·Vol $0·OI $8.394·Closes Apr 30, 2026·8d remaining
0xa09879ed1129cf89b5c0ea8e813bcb32aba2e2b6ee9800edce28c348918c3253
7-day price96 snapshots · 1 regime
78¢51¢ current
Apr 1950¢Apr 21

Analysis

3d ago

This market exhibits severe dysfunction with zero 24-hour volume despite $216.8k open interest and a massive 45¢ spread, suggesting the 78¢ price is likely stale and unreliable. The resolution criteria appears malformed—asking whether NFLX closes above "$0.00" is trivially true for any positive price, making the 902% implied yield on "Yes" nonsensical given near-certain resolution. With only 11 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 4, this market should be avoided until either the specification is clarified or meaningful liquidity returns.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NFLX/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 4347.2%
IY (No) 4709.3%
Adj IY 4709%
CRI 1
RV 628%
VR 0.98
▶ Full indicator table (8)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)4347.2%
IY (No)4709.3%
Adj IY4709%
CRI1
RV628%
VR0.98
IAR1.8/h
Overround0.9%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
98¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 10:25:36 PM
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 10:23:18 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0xa09879ed1129cf89b5c0ea8e813bcb32aba2e2b6ee9800edce28c348918c3253 yes 100

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