What is the current probability for "Will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) close at $33,000-$36,000 in December?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 39¢ (39% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on December 31, 2026. 253 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) close at $33,000-$36,000 in December?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 226.0% and 92.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) close at $33,000-$36,000 in December?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) close at $33,000-$36,000 in December?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 39% probability that Will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) close at $33,000-$36,000 in December?. This contract trades at 39¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026.

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39¢

Bid/Ask 2/75¢·Spread 73¢·Vol $0·OI $147.945·Closes Dec 31, 2026·253d remaining

0xa3476e8efbbc5557ff9f58978bcf85b7c2bc0c14d2f2c5891f1861a0e95c71c7

7-day price1352 snapshots · 5 regime

48¢40¢ current

Apr 932¢Apr 22

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."

Indicators

IY (Yes) 226.0%

IY (No) 92.4%

Adj IY 0%

CRI 2

RV 798%

VR 5.59

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	226.0%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	92.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	0%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	798%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	5.59	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	5.3/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	2.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	1.85	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

73¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 8:21:05 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 8:08:24 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xa3476e8efbbc5557ff9f58978bcf85b7c2bc0c14d2f2c5891f1861a0e95c71c7 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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