What will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) close at in December?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 27% across 8 contracts. Kalshi at 27%, Polymarket at 27%.
Implied probability
Kalshi
27%
4 contracts
Polymarket
27%
4 contracts
Cross-venue gap
0pp
tight
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$57K
8 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2030
1306 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 8 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “What price” vs “Will the Nasdaq-100”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
What price
Cluster 2
Will the Nasdaq-100
Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 25249.85 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 25,249.86 or above
KXNASDAQ100POS-26DEC31H1600-T25249.85
Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 33000 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 33,000.01 or above
KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-T33000
Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 28500 and 28999.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 28,500 to 28,999.99
KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B28750
Cluster 3
What will the price of GTA VI be
What will the price of GTA VI be?: More than $100
KXGTAPRICE-100
Cluster 4
What will Silver (SI) settle at in June
What will Silver (SI) settle at in June?: $100-$115
0xdf88e7…3a5b
What moved the line
- May 31↑ 100↑14pp38→52¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 4↑ 100↓9pp55→46¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 5↑ 100↓6pp46→40¢ · Polymarket
- May 3033,000.01 or above↓6pp35→29¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 325,249.86 or above↓5pp78→73¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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