Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $260 end of April?

This market shows extreme yield asymmetry with the Yes side offering 5860% annualized return versus 1699% for No, despite only 12 days to expiry—a classic sign of mispricing or very low conviction pricing. The 29¢ spread is wide relative to the 35¢ mid-price, and anemic 24-hour volume of just $35 against $890k open interest suggests illiquidity that could exacerbate slippage on any meaningful trade. With realized volatility at 726% and the price having drifted down 2¢ over seven days, the market is pricing in roughly a 1-in-3 chance AMZN stays below $260 through month-end, though the extreme yield and thin liquidity warrant caution before treating this as a reliable probability estimate.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

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