Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in April 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in April 2026?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Polymarket, closing April 30, 2026. This market displays extreme mispricing with a 50,418% implied yield on the Yes side against just 139.7% on the No side, suggesting the 5¢ price severely undervalues the probability of a Trump-Meloni meeting within 14 days.
Analysis
This market displays extreme mispricing with a 50,418% implied yield on the Yes side against just 139.7% on the No side, suggesting the 5¢ price severely undervalues the probability of a Trump-Meloni meeting within 14 days. The massive yield disparity combined with thin 24-hour volume of only $50 against $15.5M open interest indicates low liquidity and potential for sharp repricing if any news emerges about scheduled diplomatic meetings. With a Cliff Risk Index of 19 and resolution just two weeks away, this market is vulnerable to sudden binary moves, particularly given that high-level political meetings are often announced with short notice.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between April 1, and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both the listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xa69bf010d5678128ed4853a15f73ec33f0b4a5f66c5acf79a770a3f89e71a80a yes 100