Will the Republican Party win the CA-18 House seat?

Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Will the Republican Party win the CA-18 House seat?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Polymarket, closing November 3, 2026.

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6¢
Bid/Ask 6/6¢·Spread 0¢·Vol $0·OI $21,717.656·Closes Nov 3, 2026·195d remaining
0xa7350d84a9232eff5d10665e7a804ae45a9eef96a11a68fa68eb7b2b600ae940
7-day price31 snapshots · 2 regime
7¢6¢ current
Apr 104¢Apr 17

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

IY (Yes) 2933.7%
IY (No) 12.0%
Adj IY 1467%
CRI 16
▶ Full indicator table (4)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)2933.7%
IY (No)12.0%
Adj IY1467%
CRI16

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
0¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 1:55:56 AM
Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 1:53:18 AM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0xa7350d84a9232eff5d10665e7a804ae45a9eef96a11a68fa68eb7b2b600ae940 yes 100

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