Will the Democratic Party win the CA-49 House seat?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $16.7M open interest, suggesting the position is largely locked in with minimal recent trading activity. The 93¢ price implies overwhelming Democratic confidence in retaining CA-49, though the massive 2424.5% implied yield on the No side reflects the severe mispricing that occurs at such extreme probabilities with thin markets. With 200 days to expiration and a 13 Cliff Risk Index, this appears to be a structural liquidity trap rather than a genuine market opportunity, as the Democratic position is so dominant that contrarian bets face prohibitive odds despite theoretical payoffs.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-49 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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