Will the Democratic Party win the NY-14 House seat?

The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (93%) for Democratic retention of NY-14, though the zero 24-hour volume and modest $39k open interest suggest thin liquidity that may not reflect true consensus. The asymmetric implied yields—13.7% for Yes versus an extreme 2416.8% for No—indicate the No position is severely mispriced or represents pure tail-risk speculation, creating a potential arbitrage opportunity if Republican chances are genuinely higher than 7%. With 201 days to expiry and a stable price over the past week, this market appears to be pricing in structural Democratic advantage in a district Biden likely won decisively, but the illiquidity warrants caution before taking large positions.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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