Will Jim Priest be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma?
Prediction markets currently give a 22% probability that Will Jim Priest be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma?. This contract trades at 22¢ on Polymarket, closing June 16, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $10k open interest and a wide 9¢ spread, suggesting the 22¢ price may not reflect true consensus.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $10k open interest and a wide 9¢ spread, suggesting the 22¢ price may not reflect true consensus. The astronomical 2288% implied yield on "Yes" combined with a 1446% realized volatility and 3.89 vol ratio indicates severe mispricing or speculative positioning rather than fundamental conviction about Priest's nomination chances. With 60 days to resolution and a neutral regime, the lack of recent price movement (flat at 21¢ over 7 days) despite high information arrival suggests traders are awaiting concrete primary developments before committing capital.
Also on kalshi at 22¢(Δ 0¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Oklahoma. If no 2026 Oklahoma Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oklahoma Democratic Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xac50f53a650c8de904c6944b02758d2c156409b8578a7d6838cdede8fc6cc7ba yes 100