Will Jim Priest be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Oklahoma?
Prediction markets currently give a 22% probability that Will Jim Priest be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Oklahoma?. This contract trades at 22¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extremely thin liquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $878 open interest, making the 27¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
This market shows extremely thin liquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $878 open interest, making the 27¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The 228.8% implied yield on the Yes side is unusually high and likely reflects the low probability and illiquidity rather than genuine edge, while the 5¢ spread suggests difficulty in execution. With 566 days until expiry and a neutral regime score, this appears to be a speculative long-shot bet with minimal market depth rather than an efficiently priced contract.
Also on polymarket at 22¢(Δ 0¢)
Resolution rules
If Jim Priest wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II Oklahoma Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSENATEOKD-26-JPRI yes 100