Will Jason Esteves win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 22% probability that Will Jason Esteves win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?. This contract trades at 22¢ on Polymarket, closing May 19, 2026. Jason Esteves is trading at a steep 22¢ with an extreme 4042% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either very low conviction pricing or minimal market awareness of a long-shot candidate with just 32 days to the primary.
Analysis
Jason Esteves is trading at a steep 22¢ with an extreme 4042% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either very low conviction pricing or minimal market awareness of a long-shot candidate with just 32 days to the primary. The 7-day price surge from 13¢ to 22¢ (69% gain) combined with 868% realized volatility and a 4.0 Cliff Risk Index indicates significant recent information arrival or speculative positioning, though the modest $1.7M daily volume on $14M open interest suggests thin liquidity that could amplify price swings. The neutral regime and 1.8 info arrivals per hour signal an unsettled market where late-breaking campaign developments could dramatically shift odds in either direction before the May 19 resolution.
Also on kalshi at 27¢(Δ -5¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Georgia, scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Georgia Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Georgia Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xb2c8fd8ef77fbf037e184ff482e8422587682d55fe4a9c9c478ec973d1c98ed1 yes 100