Will Jason Esteves be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Georgia?
Prediction markets currently give a 26% probability that Will Jason Esteves be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Georgia?. This contract trades at 26¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. Jason Esteves's Democratic nomination odds have surged 35% in seven days (from 17¢ to 23¢), though the 23% implied probability remains modest with thin liquidity of just $12.4K open interest and modest daily volume of $1,298.
Analysis
Jason Esteves's Democratic nomination odds have surged 35% in seven days (from 17¢ to 23¢), though the 23% implied probability remains modest with thin liquidity of just $12.4K open interest and modest daily volume of $1,298. The extreme 609% implied yield on Yes contracts and 684% realized volatility signal high uncertainty and potential mispricing, though the neutral regime and low information arrival rate (0.6/h) suggest limited new catalysts are driving the recent move with over 200 days until the November 2026 expiration.
Also on polymarket at 22¢(Δ +4¢)
Resolution rules
If Jason Esteves wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Georgia Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGOVGANOMD-26-JEST yes 100