Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $420 end of April?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $877k open interest, and the 25¢ spread reflects pricing uncertainty rather than active trading. The 52¢ price implies MSFT needs roughly a 10% move above $420 in 11 days, yet the annualized implied yields exceed 2900% on both sides—a red flag suggesting the market may be mispriced or facing resolution ambiguity. The sharp 10¢ price decline over 7 days combined with a 693% realized volatility and neutral regime indicates this is a dead or highly illiquid market where the quoted price may not reflect true consensus.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

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