Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $285 end of April?

The 89¢ price reflects an extremely high implied probability that MSFT closes above $285 by month-end, yet the massive 25,462.9% implied yield on the "No" side reveals severe mispricing—traders betting against this outcome are pricing in extraordinary tail-risk compensation for what amounts to a 11¢ move in a 12-day window. The 19¢ spread and anemic $1.818 daily volume suggest thin liquidity is driving this distortion, with the cliff risk index of 8 indicating elevated binary event risk as expiration approaches in just over a week.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

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