Will the Reserve Bank of Australia decrease the target for the cash rate after the June Meeting?

The market is pricing in only a 4% probability of an RBA rate cut at the June 2026 meeting, with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 3¢ spread indicating extremely thin liquidity despite $5.5M in open interest. The astronomical 14,428% implied yield on the "Yes" side and 3,335% realized volatility suggest this is a highly illiquid tail-risk contract where small trades could cause extreme price swings, with the price having already declined from 5¢ to 4¢ over the past week. With 61 days to expiry and a neutral regime, this market appears to be pricing in strong market consensus against a rate cut, though the lack of trading activity and high cliff risk (24) warrant caution on the reliability of the 4¢ price discovery.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.

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