Consensys IPO closing market cap above $3B?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1150% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 17.6% on No, reflecting the low 11% probability priced in for Consensys reaching a $3B+ valuation at IPO. The extraordinarily high realized volatility of 3336% and vol ratio of 15.12 suggest this is a highly speculative position with significant uncertainty, though the modest $95.45 daily volume and $1,964 open interest indicate thin liquidity that could amplify price swings. The recent 2-cent decline over seven days combined with a cliff risk index of 8 suggests event-driven risk is concentrated, likely tied to Consensys IPO timing announcements or broader crypto market sentiment shifts.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for Consensys’ market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Consensys’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.

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