Will Catherine Fleming Bruce be the Democratic nominee for Senate in North Carolina?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Catherine Fleming Bruce be the Democratic nominee for Senate in North Carolina?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Polymarket, closing June 9, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $10.5M open interest, suggesting the positions are largely stagnant or locked in.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $10.5M open interest, suggesting the positions are largely stagnant or locked in. The astronomical 13,096% implied yield on the "Yes" side paired with 1,800% realized volatility and a Cliff Risk Index of 19 indicates highly speculative positioning on a 5¢ price that hasn't moved in seven days, likely reflecting minimal conviction or information flow (0.8 info arrivals per hour). The 3¢ spread is notably wide relative to the 5¢ price, and with 53 days to expiry, this appears to be a low-conviction market with significant tail risk embedded in the pricing.
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina. If no 2026 South Carolina Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xbdfa967a35911cb4a847488050f31f2d69e272aff65aa6bf53dd87b90c01e7ac yes 100