Will Trump and Xi not shake hands during the day of their next meeting in 2026?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 2,210% implied yield on the "Yes" position, suggesting traders are dramatically underestimating the probability that Trump and Xi won't shake hands at their next 2026 meeting. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $12.6M open interest indicates significant liquidity exists but no recent trading activity, raising questions about whether the 6¢ price reflects genuine consensus or stale positioning. The 16 Cliff Risk Index and neutral regime score suggest elevated uncertainty, particularly given the geopolitical sensitivity of any Trump-Xi meeting and the market's reliance on filmed evidence of a handshake occurring.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the length of the longest filmed handshake between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping during the day of their next meeting in 2026 (in the local timezone of the location of their next meeting). Any handshake recorded on that date will qualify. If no handshake occurs during the date of their next meeting, or if no meeting takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Handshake”. If a handshake is photographed but not captured on video, this market will resolve to "Photographed only". Duration will be measured from the exact moment their hands make initial physical contact until the exact moment either breaks contact. If the measured duration falls exactly on the boundary between two duration brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. Qualifying Requirements: The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person. Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted). The handshake must be clearly visible on video from start to finish. Non-qualifying examples: Fist bumps, hugs, waves, or other non-handshake greetings. Any handshake that is too unclear to measure. Only photographic evidence exists without a way to measure duration. The resolution source will be video footage.

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Regime

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