Will Waldo Cortes Acosta be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 25% probability that Will Waldo Cortes Acosta be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 25¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility despite 258 days to expiry, with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 22¢ spread indicating thin order books.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility despite 258 days to expiry, with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 22¢ spread indicating thin order books. The Yes position carries an extraordinary 1145% annualized implied yield, suggesting either severe mispricing or that traders view Cortes Acosta as a highly speculative long-shot candidate—his 11¢ price implies roughly 1-in-9 odds despite being a relatively unknown heavyweight contender. The 7-day price collapse from 24¢ to 11¢ combined with 3835% realized volatility signals this is a low-conviction, low-liquidity niche market where large price swings occur on minimal trading activity.
Also on kalshi at 4¢(Δ +21¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Heavyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
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Trade
sf trade 0xbfdcab0c470f567eeefdb84c3cba575ffcd41fdc3d9f688e60827bac76216039 yes 100