Who will be the Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Who will be the Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a $2,786 open interest, suggesting minimal trader interest in a highly specific outcome (Waldo Cortes Acosta holding the UFC Heavyweight title by year-end 2026).
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a $2,786 open interest, suggesting minimal trader interest in a highly specific outcome (Waldo Cortes Acosta holding the UFC Heavyweight title by year-end 2026). The 7¢ price implies only a 7% probability, yet the implied yield of 3,385.9% on the Yes side is extraordinarily high—a reflection of the tiny position size and wide 2¢ spread rather than genuine market conviction. With 259 days to expiration and a moderate Cliff Risk Index of 24, this appears to be a niche bet with significant execution risk, as Acosta would need to capture the title within a narrow timeframe against established contenders.
Also on polymarket at 22¢(Δ -16¢)
Resolution rules
If Waldo Cortes Acosta is the UFC Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUFCHEAVYWEIGHTTITLE-26-WACO yes 100