Will the Republicans win the Massachusetts Senate race in 2026?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $24k open interest, suggesting the 5¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus but rather stale positioning. The 3,468% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic sign of a low-probability long-tail bet with minimal trading activity, making the 2¢ spread potentially misleading given the lack of recent price discovery. With Massachusetts being a heavily Democratic state and the market showing a 7-day decline from 6¢ to 5¢, the current pricing appears reasonable fundamentally, but traders should be cautious about execution risk if attempting to trade this illiquid contract.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Massachusetts U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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