Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $320 end of April?

The 92¢ price reflects an extremely bullish conviction on Tesla closing above $320 by month-end, with only 10 days remaining and minimal price movement (91¢ to 92¢ over 7 days) suggesting the market has settled into this view. The massive disparity between Yes yield (307%) and No yield (40,602%) indicates severe mispricing of tail risk—the "No" side offers astronomical returns, though the $15.5k daily volume and 10¢ spread suggest thin liquidity that could amplify volatility if new information emerges. With a Cliff Risk Index of 12 and neutral regime, this market is pricing in very little downside scenario despite Tesla's stock volatility, making it a potential contrarian opportunity for those betting on a pullback below $320.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

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