Will Boston Red Sox win the 2026 American League Championship Series?

The Red Sox ALCS contract is trading at an extremely depressed 7¢ with virtually no 24-hour volume despite $29.7M in open interest, suggesting this is a stale or illiquid position. The 2440.7% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high and likely reflects the mathematical artifact of pricing near zero rather than genuine opportunity, as the 2¢ spread and neutral regime indicate limited conviction in either direction. With 199 days until expiration and the market showing recent downward price movement from 8¢, this appears to be a low-conviction, potentially abandoned position that warrants caution due to its illiquidity and extreme yield metrics.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 American League Championship Series. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 American League Championship Series per the rules of the MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 American League Championship Series is cancelled, postponed after November 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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