What is the current probability for "Will Kyler Murray be traded?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 11¢ (11% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on July 22, 2026. 91 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Kyler Murray be traded?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 3248.4% and 49.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Kyler Murray be traded?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Kyler Murray be traded?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will Kyler Murray be traded?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Polymarket, closing July 22, 2026. This market has experienced extreme volatility, plummeting 84% over seven days from 19¢ to 3¢, suggesting a significant negative news event or shift in trader sentiment regarding Murray's trade likelihood.

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11¢

Bid/Ask 1/22¢·Spread 21¢·Vol $0·OI $367.697·Closes Jul 22, 2026·91d remaining

0xc8eca6329a25c634de96be03461ec6165f59964b53edee376070e93e9d739581

7-day price129 snapshots · 9 regime

22¢11¢ current

Apr 153¢Apr 22

Analysis

5d ago

This market has experienced extreme volatility, plummeting 84% over seven days from 19¢ to 3¢, suggesting a significant negative news event or shift in trader sentiment regarding Murray's trade likelihood. The 12,207% implied yield on the "Yes" side reflects the deeply depressed price, but the thin $514 daily volume and wide 4¢ spread indicate low liquidity that could amplify price swings further. With 97 days to expiry and a realized volatility of 9,081%, this is a highly speculative position where the extreme yield masks substantial execution risk rather than genuine opportunity.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed NFL player is traded by July 22, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 3248.4%

IY (No) 49.6%

Adj IY 1624%

CRI 8

Overround 1.8%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	3248.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	49.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1624%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	8	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	1.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

21¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 2:14:24 AM

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 2:08:18 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xc8eca6329a25c634de96be03461ec6165f59964b53edee376070e93e9d739581 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →