Will Kyle Freeman be the Democratic nominee for Senate in North Carolina?

Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Kyle Freeman be the Democratic nominee for Senate in North Carolina?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Polymarket, closing June 9, 2026. Kyle Freeman's Democratic Senate nomination odds have collapsed from 6¢ to 5¢ over the past week, now pricing him at just a 5% chance with minimal liquidity ($0 in 24h volume despite $12.7M open interest).

██░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░
4¢
Bid/Ask 4/5¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $0·OI $16,671.804·Closes Jun 9, 2026·48d remaining
0xca360f44c8bb880f8e57ec808f867e50e054f872fad4d6df56b90391685f0bed
7-day price47 snapshots · 6 regime
6¢4¢ current
Apr 114¢Apr 21

Analysis

5d ago

Kyle Freeman's Democratic Senate nomination odds have collapsed from 6¢ to 5¢ over the past week, now pricing him at just a 5% chance with minimal liquidity ($0 in 24h volume despite $12.7M open interest). The astronomical 13,091% implied yield on a "Yes" resolution signals extreme mispricing or suggests the market views this as a near-certain loss, though the 19 Cliff Risk Index and approaching 53-day expiry warrant caution on such tail positions.

Cross-venue

Also on kalshi at 4¢0¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.88IY 4479.5%Close-time delta 3543h

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina. If no 2026 South Carolina Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 18275.9%
IY (No) 31.7%
Adj IY 9138%
CRI 24
Overround -0.0%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)18275.9%
IY (No)31.7%
Adj IY9138%
CRI24
Overround-0.0%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
1¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 1:40:35 AM
Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 1:38:18 AM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0xca360f44c8bb880f8e57ec808f867e50e054f872fad4d6df56b90391685f0bed yes 100

Related concepts

Related Prediction Market Questions